fitness and virality

In general, restricting your audience enables you to design more effectively around your users' tastes and needs. Resulting structures are more fitting. The downside is that their speed of adoption is slower due to the lower virality coefficients associated with dispersed audiences.

Prone to critical thresholds, growth of social structures like marketplaces and social media platforms are very sensitive to speed of adoption. This is the primary reason why social verticals repeatedly fail to take off while non-social verticals easily succeed. Those that take off are usually subgraphs of already existing general graphs and therefore suffer from serious design defects.


This discussion is related to another blog post where I viewed abstraction as a lever between probability of longevity and probability of success.

  • In the practical realm, general and useful structures are easier to find but also easier to kill. (They eventually get dismantled by verticals which can more efficiently solve each of the collectively-addressed problems.) In the theoretical realm, abstract and useful results are harder to kill but also harder to find.

  • In the practical realm general structures emerge first and verticals come later. In the theoretical realm specific results emerge first and abstractions come later.

These dichotomies stem from the difference between serving and understanding. Former gets better as you zoom in, latter gets better as you zoom out.

thoughts on abstraction

Why is it always the case that formulation of deeper physics require more abstract mathematics? Why does understanding get better as it zooms out?

Side Note: Notice that there are two ways of zooming out. First, you can abstract by ignoring details. This is actually great for applications, but not good for understanding. It operates more like chunking, coarse-graining, forming equivalence classes etc. You end up sacrificing accuracy for the sake of practicality. Second, you can abstract in the sense of finding an underlying structure that allows you to see two phenomena as different manifestations of the same phenomenon. This is actually the meaning that we will be using throughout the blogpost. While coarse graining is easy, discovering an underlying structure is hard. You need to understand the specificity of a phenomenon which you normally consider to be general.

For instance, a lot of people are unsatisfied with the current formulation of quantum physics, blaming it for being too instrumental. Yes, the math is powerful. Yes, the predictions turn out to be correct. But the mathematical machinery (function spaces etc.) feels alien, even after one gets used to it over time. Or compare the down-to-earth Feynman diagrams with the amplituhedron theory... Again, you have a case where a stronger and more abstract beast is posited to dethrone a multitude of earthlings.

Is the alienness a price we have to pay for digging deeper? The answer is unfortunately yes. But this should not be surprising at all:

  • We should not expect to be able to explain deeper physics (which is so removed from our daily lives) using basic mathematics inspired from mundane physical phenomena. Abstraction gives us the necessary elbow room to explore realities that are far-removed from our daily lives.

  • You can use the abstract to can explain the specific but you can not proceed the other way around. Hence as you understand more, you inevitably need to go higher up in abstraction. For instance, you may hope that a concept as simple as the notion of division algebra will be powerful enough to explain all of physics, but you will sooner or later be gravely disappointed. There is probably a deeper truth lurking behind such a concrete pattern.



Abstraction as Compression

The simplicities of natural laws arise through the complexities of the languages we use for their expression.

- Eugene Wigner

That the simplest theory is best, means that we should pick the smallest program that explains a given set of data. Furthermore, if the theory is the same size as the data, then it is useless, because there is always a theory that is the same size as the data that it explains. In other words, a theory must be a compression of the data, and the greater the compression, the better the theory. Explanations are compressions, comprehension is compression!

Chaitin - Metaphysics, Metamathematics and Metabiology

We can not encode more without going more abstract. This is a fundamental feature of the human brain. Either you have complex patterns based on basic math or you have simple patterns based on abstract math. In other words, complexity is either apparent or hidden, never gotten rid of. (i.e. There is no loss of information.) By replacing one source of cognitive strain (complexity) with another source of cognitive strain (abstraction), we can lift our analysis to higher-level complexities.

In this sense, progress in physics is destined to be of an unsatisfactory nature. Our theories will keep getting more abstract (and difficult) at each successive information compression. 

Don't think of this as a human tragedy though! Even machines will need abstract mathematics to understand deeper physics, because they too will be working under resource constraints. No matter how much more energy and resources you summon, the task of simulating a faithful copy of the universe will always require more.

As Bransford points out, people rarely remember written or spoken material word for word. When asked to reproduce it, they resort to paraphrase, which suggests that they were able to store the meaning of the material rather than making a verbatim copy of each sentence in the mind. We forget the surface structure, but retain the abstract relationships contained in the deep structure.

Jeremy Campbell - Grammatical Man (Page 219)

Depending on context, category theoretical techniques can yield proofs shorter than set theoretical techniques can, and vice versa. Hence, a machine that can sense when to switch between these two languages can probe the vast space of all true theories faster. Of course, you will need human aide (enhanced with machine learning algorithms) to discern which theories are interesting and which are not.

Abstraction is probably used by our minds as well, allowing it to decrease the number of used neurons without sacrificing explanatory power.

Rolnick and Max Tegmark of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology proved that by increasing depth and decreasing width, you can perform the same functions with exponentially fewer neurons. They showed that if the situation you’re modeling has 100 input variables, you can get the same reliability using either 2100 neurons in one layer or just 210 neurons spread over two layers. They found that there is power in taking small pieces and combining them at greater levels of abstraction instead of attempting to capture all levels of abstraction at once.

“The notion of depth in a neural network is linked to the idea that you can express something complicated by doing many simple things in sequence,” Rolnick said. “It’s like an assembly line.”

- Foundations Built for a General Theory of Neural Networks (Kevin Hartnett)

In a way, the success of neural network models with increased depth reflect the hierarchical aspects of the phenomena themselves. We end up mirroring nature more closely as we try to economize our models.


Abstraction as Unlearning

Abstraction is not hard because of technical reasons. (On the contrary, abstract things are easier to manipulate due to their greater simplicities.) It is hard because it involves unlearning. (That is why people who are better at forgetting are also better at abstracting.)

Side Note: Originality of the generalist is artistic in nature and lies in the intuition of the right definitions. Originality of the specialist is technical in nature and lies in the invention of the right proof techniques.

Globally, unlearning can be viewed as the Herculean struggle to go back to the tabula rasa state of a beginner's mind. (In some sense, what takes a baby a few months to learn takes humanity hundreds of years to unlearn.) We discard one by one what has been useful in manipulating the world in favor of getting closer to the truth.

Here are some beautiful observations of a physicist about the cognitive development of his own child:

My 2-year old’s insight into quantum gravity. If relative realism is right then ‘physical reality’ is what we experience as a consequence of looking at the world in a certain way, probing deeper and deeper into more and more general theories of physics as we have done historically (arriving by now at two great theories, quantum and gravity) should be a matter of letting go of more and more assumptions about the physical world until we arrive at the most general theory possible. If so then we should also be able to study a single baby, born surely with very little by way of assumptions about physics, and see where and why each assumption is taken on. Although Piaget has itemized many key steps in child development, his analysis is surely not about the fundamental steps at the foundation of theoretical physics. Instead, I can only offer my own anecdotal observations.

Age 11 months: loves to empty a container, as soon as empty fills it, as soon as full empties it. This is the basic mechanism of waves (two competing urges out of phase leading to oscillation).

Age 12-17 months: puts something in drawer, closes it, opens it to see if it is still there. Does not assume it would still be there. This is a quantum way of thinking. It’s only after repeatedly finding it there that she eventually grows to accept classical logic as a useful shortcut (as it is in this situation).

Age 19 months: comes home every day with mother, waves up to dad cooking in the kitchen from the yard. One day dad is carrying her. Still points up to kitchen saying ‘daddy up there in the kitchen’. Dad says no, daddy is here. She says ‘another daddy’ and is quite content with that. Another occasion, her aunt Sarah sits in front of her and talks to her on my mobile. When asked, Juliette declares the person speaking to her ‘another auntie Sarah’. This means that at this age Juliette’s logic is still quantum logic in which someone can happily be in two places at the same time.

Age 15 months (until the present): completely unwilling to shortcut a lego construction by reusing a group of blocks, insists on taking the bits fully apart and then building from scratch. Likewise always insists to read a book from its very first page (including all the front matter). I see this as part of her taking a creative control over her world.

Age 20-22 months: very able to express herself in the third person ‘Juliette is holding a spoon’ but finds it very hard to learn about pronouns especially ‘I’. Masters ‘my’ first and but overuses it ‘my do it’. Takes a long time to master ‘I’ and ‘you’ correctly. This shows that an absolute coordinate-invariant world view is much more natural than a relative one based on coordinate system in which ‘I’ and ‘you’ change meaning depending on who is speaking. This is the key insight of General Relativity that coordinates depend on a coordinate system and carry no meaning of themselves, but they nevertheless refer to an absolute geometry independent of the coordinate system. Actually, once you get used to the absolute reference ‘Juliette is doing this, dad wants to do that etc’ it’s actually much more natural than the confusing ‘I’ and ‘you’ and as a parent I carried on using it far past the time that I needed to. In the same way it’s actually much easier to do and teach differential geometry in absolute coordinate-free terms than the way taught in most physics books.

Age 24 months: until this age she did not understand the concept of time. At least it was impossible to do a bargain with her like ‘if you do this now, we will go to the playground tomorrow’ (but you could bargain with something immediate). She understood ‘later’ as ‘now’.

Age 29 months: quite able to draw a minor squiggle on a bit of paper and say ‘look a face’ and then run with that in her game-play. In other words, very capable of abstract substitutions and accepting definitions as per pure mathematics. At the same time pedantic, does not accept metaphor (‘you are a lion’ elicits ‘no, I’m me’) but is fine with similie, ‘is like’, ‘is pretending to be’.

Age 31 months: understands letters and the concept of a word as a line of letters but sometimes refuses to read them from left to right, insisting on the other way. Also, for a time after one such occasion insisted on having her books read from last page back, turning back as the ‘next page’. I interpret this as her natural awareness of parity and her right to demand to do it her own way.

Age 33 months (current): Still totally blank on ‘why’ questions, does not understand this concept. ‘How’ and ‘what’ are no problem. Presumably this is because in childhood the focus is on building up a strong perception of reality, taking on assumptions without question and as quickly as possible, as it were drinking in the world.

... and just in the last few days: remarked ‘oh, going up’ for the deceleration at the end of going down in an elevator, ‘down and a little bit up’ as she explained. And pulling out of my parking spot insisted that ‘the other cars are going away’. Neither observation was prompted in any way. This tells me that relativity can be taught at preschool.

- Algebraic Approach to Quantum Gravity I: Relative Realism (S. Majid)


Abstraction for Survival

The idea, according to research in Psychology of Aesthetics, Creativity, and the Arts, is that thinking about the future encourages people to think more abstractly—presumably becoming more receptive to non-representational art.

- How to Choose Wisely (Tom Vanderbilt)

Why do some people (like me) get deeply attracted to abstract subjects (like Category Theory)?

One of the reasons could be related to the point made above. Abstract things have higher chances of survival and staying relevant because they are less likely to be affected by the changes unfolding through time. (Similarly, in the words of Morgan Housel, "the further back in history you look, the more general your takeaways should be.") Hence, if you have an hunger for timelessness or a worry about being outdated, then you will be naturally inclined to move up the abstraction chain. (No wonder why I am also obsessed with the notion of time.)

Side Note: The more abstract the subject, the less community around it is willing to let you attach your name to your new discoveries. Why? Because the half-life of discoveries at higher levels of abstraction is much longer and therefore your name will live on for a much longer period of time. (i.e. It makes sense to be prudent.) After being trained in mathematics for so many years, I was shocked to see how easily researchers in other fields could “arrogantly” attach their names to basic findings. Later I realized that this behavior was not out of arrogance. These fields were so far away from truth (i.e. operating at very low levels of abstraction) that half-life of discoveries were very short. If you wanted to attach your name to a discovery, mathematics had a high-risk-high-return pay-off structure while these other fields had a low-risk-low-return structure.

But the higher you move up in the abstraction chain, the harder it becomes for you to innovate usefully. There is less room to play around since the objects of study have much fewer properties. Most of the meaningful ideas have already been fleshed out by others who came before you.

In other words, in the realm of ideas, abstraction acts as a lever between probability of longevity and probability of success. If you aim for a higher probability of longevity, then you need to accept the lower probability of success.

That is why abstract subjects are unsuitable for university environments. The pressure of "publish or perish" mentality pushes PhD students towards quick and riskless incremental research. Abstract subjects on the other hand require risky innovative research which may take a long time to unfold and result in nothing publishable.

Now you may be wondering whether the discussion in the previous section is in conflict with the discussion here. How can abstraction be both a process of unlearning and a means for survival? Is not the evolutionary purpose of learning to increase the probability of survival? I would say that it all depends on your time horizon. To survive the immediate future, you need to learn how your local environment operates and truth is not your primary concern. But as your time horizon expands into infinity, what is useful and what is true become indistinguishable, as your environment shuffles through all allowed possibilities.

holy vs profane

I think they destroyed the Latin language as well, the Catholic Church. One comment again from theology: when they translated the texts from Latin or from Vulgar method into vernaculars. Because then, when you do, you try to market our religion as something useful, but before it was something holy, this whole thing.

You notice that the reason the Pope presented, he said that it’s to increase the number of Catholics. In fact, the Church contracted at the time, when compared to Islam, where you have one-and-a-half-billion Muslims praying in a language they don’t understand so visibly.

It’s exactly the same thing, is that its separating the holy and profane. Don’t translate to vernacular the beautiful Latin things. Likewise, do not try to make poetry or literature or history — do not make it practical.

Just make the people study for their own sake, just like you go to church. It’s not for anything practical. You don’t go to church because you’re going to meet an employer. You go to church to go to church. Likewise, we have to separate these two.

- Bryan Caplan and Nassim Nicholas Taleb on What’s Missing in Education

The reason why religion is not a subset of philosophy is because it is primarily concerned with appreciating rather than understanding. A core set of beliefs and attitudes are agreed upon, preserved and supplemented with rituals.

Buddhism's emphasis of experience over text is very spot on in the sense that the subject matter of religion is fundamentally impossible to articulate. (Meditation properly done is experimental metaphysics.) The transcendental can not and should not be put in words which are profane mortal creations and may arise a false feeling of understanding. (It is not a coincidence that songs in languages we do not understand move us more deeply.)

Religious thinking calmly ties all causal chains to a single source. Secular thinking democratizes self-referentiality and then hastily tries to loop each causal chain onto itself.* (That is why secular minds are always so busy.) But once you remove the monolithically centralized node of God, then there is no absolute good or evil any more. (Yes, you are right, this is a reference to Nietzsche.) In other words, you are completely fucked. You need to come up with profane reasons to do anything, including the act of going to church, as Taleb exemplifies above. Moreover, those reasons will inevitably be of the type that can not stand on its own. The insecurity caused by such open-ended trails of thinking will be left for some other time to be dealt with. Like a technical debt, this insecurity will grow until it breaks you down and you find yourself either talking to some stranger claiming mastery over human psyche or bending into arcane positions on a sweaty yoga mat or browsing self-help books in one of those stupid bookstores with a coffee shop inside it. All with the hope you will be able to loop those God damn causal chains back onto themselves.

* Democratization operator has been a defining feature of modernism. For instance, as I mentioned in a previous post, democracy, capitalism and social media democratized respectively power, money and fame.

ölümü anlatmak

Hayatımdaki en zor eğitimsel deneyimlerden biri üç yaşındaki kızıma ölümün ne olduğunu anlatmaktı. Bir yandan zor sorular gelecek diye korkmam, bir yandan yaşanan hüzünden kendimi koparıp bilimsel hijyenikliğe geçmeye çabalamam...

Tehlikeli, sorumluluk isteyen bir şeydi babalık. Çocuğunuz size sonsuz güven duyduğu için ne derseniz sorgusuz sualsiz kabul görüyordu. Hata yapmaktan ürkmemek elde değildi.

- İnsanlar yaşlanınca çok hastalanıyor ve iyileşemiyorlar. Sonrasında burada onları toprağın içine koyuyoruz. Zamanla ağaçlara çiçeklere dönüşüyorlar.
- Peki anne yaşlandı mı, sen yaşlandın mı?

Ne kadar saf bir evreydi onunkisi. Kendisini düşünmemesi, ilk annesini babasını düşünmesi... Ölümün korkunç bir yanı yoktu ölen için. Ölüm sadece geride kalanlar için korkunçtu. Bunu ne kadar net ve tereddütsüz bir şekilde görebilmişti.

Biz yetişkinlerin kafası ne kadar karışıktı. Kim kime ne öğretiyordu...

blockchain and decentralization

As with every transformative technology, blockchain has started off a long creative destruction process. (Think of how invention of electricity changed everything.) This time around though, the destruction part is much more palpable than the creativity part. Blockchain's infrastructural nature makes it hard to predict what sorts of profitable business models will be built on top of it in the future, but its decentralizing nature has already planted fear into the hearts of some of the world's most profitable companies that have thrived by centralizing and gating certain aspects of ourselves. (Think of how Facebook is trying to own our social selves.) The reason behind the fear is that decentralization always equilibrates towards market structures with zero producer surplus. (Think of how yellow-pages got pulvarised as internet became more widely adopted.)

But there is still a lot of hope for centralization fans! Just look at what happened at the currency front which turned out to be the killer (popularizing) application for blockchain technology. (Lighting was the killer application for electricity technology.)

  • Bitcoin became by far the most dominant crypto-currency.
  • Bitcoin mining operations are now concentrated in the hands of few producers.

How did these two centralization processes take hold? Was not blockchain supposed to liberate us from all centralizations? Well... We should not forget that the unfolding of a technology itself is an economic process subject to usual laws of economics. The above centralization processes took hold respectively due to network and scale effects. That is how removing one centralized node (central bank) in the network created new centralized nodes elsewhere.

In some sense, we are in a much worse paradigm today. At least when currencies were defined by national boundaries, we had many of them. Today we basically have one giant monolithic crypto-currency! 

What happened basically is that we reinvented gold in a much worse form. (Just like how Facebook ended up reinventing TV in an even more addictive form.). At least, the scale effects at gold mining operations had taken longer to crystallize due to the physical nature of the operations!

Bitcoin enthusiasts generally tend to be naive economists. They can not even see that fiat currency was actually one of the greatest inventions of mankind, giving us a previously non-existent control over the money supply. (For instance, increasing the money supply during times of crisis and decreasing it during times of exuberance help us ease the severity of business cycles.)

Blockchain itself though (the underlying technology behind Bitcoin) has unleashed a wave of great economic thinking (and creativity). People are getting wiser about economics. They are realizing that the notion of "value" goes far beyond "money", that a lot of seemingly non-economic transactions are actually economic in nature. Now all they have to do is to render the invisible trust tokens visible by launching blockchain startups.

structural flows and vertical integrations

Just like there is a deep relation between the network structure of neurons and the subsequent dynamical flow of information around them, there is a deep relation between market structure and profit flow. 

Think of each supply chain as a vertical stack where each stack manufactures the inputs used at one higher stack. For instance, one stack may have ten different type of inputs from the stacks below itself (in different supply chains) and each input may be generated inside either a monopolistic, an oligopolistic or a competitive market conditions. (Supply chains intersect at stacks where more than one input are used to generate a single output.)

Profit of the whole supply chain is capped above by the consumer value assigned to the final product and below by the total cost of production of the entire chain. Now think of the thickness of each stack as the amount of profit captured by that particular stack. Visually, what happens over time is that the whole chain dynamically flexes as the total amount of profit and its internal distribution evolve. These dynamics are mainly shaped by the (ever-changing) market structures at each stack. For instance, a monopolistic stack can easily suck profits from the stack above by charging a higher price for its output. (Of course, a higher price also results decreased demand but the monopolist has the luxury to optimize this trade-off.) A monopolistic stack can flex its muscle downwards as well if the output of a stack below is not utilized elsewhere in the economy.

Each company exists inside a supply chain and one reason why companies try to become vertically integrated is to minimize the uncertainties entailed by the ever-evolving profit distribution across the chain. Of course, in practice, most vertical integrations are done for the wrong reasons. For instance, companies often extend themselves into neighboring stacks that have long become commoditized and effectively stabilized into a no-profit equilibrium due to extreme competition. Also, generally speaking, the uncertainties are best addressed at the financial (investor) level rather the operational (manager) level. That is basically why investors like to conduct portfolio optimization with pure plays only. (Part of the uncertainty that can never be eliminated by portfolio optimization methods is called systemic risk in finance jargon.)

Companies routinely launch attacks against monopolistic stacks by funding open source projects, antitrust lobbying activities, meanwhile merging with other behemoths in order to become monopolies themselves. They also occasionally reach out horizontally across to the neighboring supply chains. For instance, in order to increase how much the stack above can pay for their output, they try to find ways to decrease the prices of the complements of their output. (Remember the stack above needs to combine several inputs, including your output. The less it pays for the other inputs, the more it can pay to you.)

When a pioneer startup is building an entire new supply chain from scratch, it has no choice but to own the entire chain since everyone else is far behind it in terms of understanding the contents of what is emerging. Of course, no single company can do a high-quality job at each stack in the chain. Sooner or later, other (more-focused) startups join the game by claiming certain stacks. The pioneer startup has the first-mover advantage of having visibility over which stacks are worth defending. (Of course, it is never easy to focus an already over-extended company.) As the new supply chain matures, the number of players at each stack proliferates and the robustness of the whole supply chain increases.

progressing up the mastery levels

As your ear becomes increasingly discriminative, you start enjoying more complex pieces of music. Same goes for your mind, eyes and tongue. You leave your favorites behind as you move up the mastery levels.

This is one of the reasons why test of time is so effective. Not only you make the environmental stochasticity work in your favor but you also benefit from the fact that your filtering mechanisms are improving over time.

I personally find these dynamics kind of scary. When you keep discarding what (and who) you used to hold dear to your heart, life starts losing its meaning little by little. It is just a matter of time when what you hold on to now will look tasteless. 

What is really great? What is really true? I do not think we could even recognize the truly great if it was staring us in the face today. 

How does it feel like to be up there at the highest level of maturity? Is there even such a final level? If not, then there is no hope that the truth will ever be accessible to us.

harder vs new

There are two ways of moving upwards in life:

  1. Tackling harder challenges of the same type that you encountered at the level below
  2. Tacking a new set of challenges that were previously non-existent at the level below

First way is prevalent in education and techniques of mastery learning take it as fundamental.

Second way is prevalent in business and the famous Peter principle exists entirely due to it. For instance, being promoted from a non-managerial role to a managerial role is a very zero-to-one situation. A lot of people go for it because of higher status and salary, and end up being very unhappy because it is not really their thing. In other words, the problem is often not a competence issue but a fit issue. There are also non-linearities involved. For instance, I think that I am good at very detailed, lowest level work and very conceptual, highest level work, but not good at mid-level work. In other words, promoted one level up, I would perform worse, but promoted two levels up I would perform better.

bursting vs building

There are two ways to think about sales, and this applies to everything from business to politics to teaching: You can sell something in a way that captures people’s attention, which is very effective in the short run but wears off, as attention spans and dopamine bursts expire. Or you can sell in a way that captures people’s trust, which is harder and slower than capturing attention but tends to last longer.

- Repeating Themes (Morgan Housel)

Come on... Who needs trust when you have blockchain? We live in an age where relationships start with a swipe to the right and companies either fail fast or scale quickly. Don't be so old fashioned!

Information wants to be not only free, but also bursty! Why deliver slow while you can deliver fast? Slow processes suck, especially since we have so short lifespans!

Well... I am sorry but I am slow. I like enjoying the time I have here rather than rushing through some potentially longer lifespan.

  • People who spend all their efforts on creating a great first impression tend to disappoint horribly afterwards.

  • Companies that scale very fast scare the shit out of me as their falls tend to be also very fast.

  • Skills that take longer to learn (like negotiation skills as opposed to a technical skill that can be learned by reading a single book) tend to also stay relevant longer.

  • Men who can not enjoy the truly lasting qualities in a woman tend to be tasteless and impoverished.

clarity and death

I have never been able to achieve clarity on demand. It happens to me every once in a while when things suddenly fall apart.

When things really fall apart, you do not feel a sense of emergency. On the contrary, the very notion of emergency disappears. Priorities do not get reshuffled. Something less destabilizing but more drastic happens: They lose their order structure altogether, aimlessly drifting in mid-air, like specks of dust. You become a passive spectator of your own life, stupidly gazing back at your own gaze.

Clarity clears. It makes you so empty inside that the sheer pressure differential physically bends your body into a withdrawal position. You feel hunger pangs, but weirdly start enjoying them. You start forgetting things, but feel no discomfort for doing so. 

It is amazing how effectively body and mind can let go in the absence of the will to live. We as a society focus heavily on our positive adaptive capabilities which give rise to all the heroic content that we shovel into our popular narratives. Our equally remarkable negative adaptive capabilities remain largely ignored. 

In short, clarity kills, but it does so only fractionally, not in a wholesome way. Of course, when you die one third, no one even notices...